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Races · house · 2024 · Kansas
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Sharice Davids vs Karen Crnkovich

← Kansas houseKansas house →
Likely DD +9.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Davids (D)
5% Crnkovich (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +9.9 · 80% CI R+2.1 → D+21.9
Actual result D+10.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.1 (10th pctile) to D+21.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.9
80% CI: R +2.1 → D +21.9 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+10.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DSharice Davids0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RKaren Crnkovich0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12
Sharice DavidsH8KS03155 ↗
Receipts
$6.0M
Disburse
$5.6M
Cash on hand
$403.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$29.6K
Education$13.9K
Computers / electronics$8.6K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS$13.9K
DENTONS US LLP$12.7K
BYRNE PELOFSKY + ASSOCIATES LLC$11.3K
BARKLEY$10.7K
STUEVE SIEGEL HANSON LLP$10.1K
Karen CrnkovichOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$160.0K
Disburse
$153.3K
Cash on hand
$6.7K
Debts
$1.0K
Top industries
Pharma / health products$5.0K
Electric utilities$3.3K
Top contributors
FOLEY EQUIPMENT$6.6K
EAGLE EXCAVATING$6.6K
O'BRIEN PHARMACY$5.0K
MARK ONE ELECTRIC$3.3K
COLT ENERGY, INC.$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.0M
D side
$861.5K · 83%
R side
$180.0K · 17%
Top spender
SHIELD PAC
For / against split
For Davids $217.2K
Against Reddy $644.3K
For Reddy $180.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SHIELD PACD$175.0K17%for Sharice Davids
MOMSRISING TOGETHERD$32.8K3%for Sharice Davids
WORKING AMERICAD$9.1K1%for Sharice Davids
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$244.240%for Sharice Davids
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Sharice Davids

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D3
CNalysis
Likely D
Nov 15
Cook Political Report
Likely D
Feb 1
Elections Daily
Safe D
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks