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Races · house · 2024 · Kansas
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house · open seat

Nancy Boyda vs Derek Schmidt

← Kansas houseKansas house →
Safe RR +28.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Boyda (D)
99% Schmidt (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +28.3 · 80% CI R+40.3 → R+16.3
Actual result R+18.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.3 (10th pctile) to R+16.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.3
80% CI: R +40.3 → R +16.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+18.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDerek Schmidt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DNancy Boyda0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJohn Hauer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-21
Derek SchmidtH4KS02164 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$38.5K
Debts
$17.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
MILLER'S PROFESSIONAL IMAGING$13.2K
WATCO COMPANIES$13.2K
WEALTH ALLIANCE ADVISORY GROUP, LLC$10.0K
SNK REAL PROPERTY HOLDINGS, LLC$9.9K
CROSSLAND COMPANIES$6.6K
Nancy BoydaH4KS02107 ↗
Receipts
$245.1K
Disburse
$245.1K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$99.0K
Top industries
Health professionals$4.0K
Education$3.4K
Electric utilities$2.5K
Lawyers / law firms$1.5K
Pharma / health products$1.3K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS$3.4K
BLUE BEACON, INC.$3.3K
WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC COMPANY$2.5K
ADVENT HEALTH MEDICAL GROUP$2.0K
SABETHA COMMUNITY HOSPITAL$2.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$747.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$747.0K · 100%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
For / against split
Against Boyda $31.9K
For Schmidt $715.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$495.1K66%for Derek Schmidt
CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.R$181.9K24%for Derek Schmidt
CONSERVATIVE OUTSIDER PAC INCR$47.9K6%for Derek Schmidt
KANSAS CONSERVATIVE FUNDR$16.9K2%for Derek Schmidt

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 1
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks