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Races · house · 2024 · Indiana
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Frank Mrvan vs Randy Niemeyer

← Illinois houseIndiana house →
Likely DD +5.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
81% Mrvan (D)
19% Niemeyer (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +5.3 · 80% CI R+6.7 → D+17.3
Actual result Frank J. Mrvan +8.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 81% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.7 (10th pctile) to D+17.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 81% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.3
80% CI: R +6.7 → D +17.3 · win prob 81%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultFrank J. Mrvan +8.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DFrank Mrvan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRandy Niemeyer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-07
Frank MrvanH0IN01150 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$3.2M
Cash on hand
$88.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$9.9K
Education$8.3K
Computers / electronics$6.6K
Top contributors
KPS CAPITAL PARTNERS LP$13.2K
AM GENERAL LLC$10.6K
CLIFFORD LAW OFFICES$9.9K
KPS CAPITAL PARTNERS$9.0K
INDIANA UNIVERSITY$8.3K
Randy NiemeyerH4IN01210 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$26.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$6.6K
Top contributors
OWNER$10.8K
RESIDCO$6.8K
MOUNTAIRE CORP$6.6K
OLTHOF HOMES LLC$6.6K
CITY OF NORTH VERNON/TOWN OF CEDAR LAK$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$344.1K
D side
$343.4K · 100%
R side
$682.39 · 0%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Mrvan $341.8K
Against Niemeyer $1.6K
For Niemeyer $682.39
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$264.0K77%for Frank Mrvan
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$34.4K10%for Frank Mrvan
WORKING AMERICAD$31.8K9%for Frank Mrvan
UNITED STEELWORKERS POLITICAL ACTION FUNDD$7.3K2%for Frank Mrvan
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYD$5.5K2%for Frank Mrvan
INDIANA REPUBLICAN STATE COMMITTEE, INC.R$682.390%for Randy Niemeyer

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D4
Lean D1
CNalysis
Likely D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Oct 3
Elections Daily
Likely D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Likely D
Mar 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks