Races · house · 2024 · Georgia

house · open seat

Lucy McBath vs Jeff Criswell

← Georgia house Georgia house →

Lean RR +3.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
29% McBath (D)
71% Criswell (R)
Win probability
Lucy McBath29% (D)
Jeff Criswell71% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +3.4
80% CIR+15.4 → D+8.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +3.4 · 80% CI R+15.4 → D+8.6
Actual result D+49.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 71% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+25) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.4 (10th pctile) to D+8.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 71% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +3.4

80% CI: R +15.4 → D +8.6 · win prob 29%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+49.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DLucy McBath0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJeff Criswell0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-30

Lucy McBathH8GA06393 ↗

Receipts

$2.5M

Disburse

$2.2M

Cash on hand

$953.3K

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$6.6K

Securities & investment$6.6K

Real estate$6.6K

Top contributors

CROWNE PARTNERS, INC.$7.3K

MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL$6.6K

WILLOUGHBY CAPITAL HOLDINGS$6.6K

THE RADCO COMPANIES$6.6K

CYNTHIA MISCIKOWSKI$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$250.5K

D side

$250.5K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

EVERYTOWN FOR GUN S…

For / against split

For McBath $250.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)	D	$218.4K	87%	for Lucy McBath
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	D	$30.2K	12%	for Lucy McBath
DMFI PAC	D	$1.4K	1%	for Lucy McBath
MOMSRISING TOGETHER	D	$384.61	0%	for Lucy McBath
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$38.9	0%	for Lucy McBath

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Oct 30

Decision Desk HQ

Safe D

May 31

Elections Daily

Safe D

Jun 7

Inside Elections

Safe D

Mar 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-30

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks