Races · house · 2024 · Georgia

house · open seat

Sanford Bishop vs Chuck Hand

← Georgia house Georgia house →

Likely DD +12.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% Bishop (D)
2% Hand (R)
Win probability
Sanford Bishop98% (D)
Chuck Hand2% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +12.3
80% CID+0.3 → D+24.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +12.3 · 80% CI D+0.3 → D+24.3
Actual result D+12.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.3 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+24.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +12.3

80% CI: D +0.3 → D +24.3 · win prob 98%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+12.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DSanford Bishop0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RChuck Hand0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-02

Sanford BishopH2GA02031 ↗

Receipts

$1.9M

Disburse

$1.8M

Cash on hand

$182.9K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$6.6K

Top contributors

AFLAC, INC.$12.0K

PHOEBE PUTNEY$10.9K

LOTUS LANDS$9.9K

JORDAN-BLANCHARD CAPITAL, LLC$9.3K

AEE PRODUCTIONS$9.1K

Chuck HandOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$57.9K

Disburse

$57.9K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Electric utilities$104.12

Top contributors

GLAZIER NATION$3.3K

GLAZIERS ON DEMAND$2.0K

SOUTH OAKS PLANTATION$500

CARTER MECHANICAL INC$300

THE TRAFFIC GROUP$200

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$29.8K

D side

$29.8K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

UNITED WE CAN

For / against split

For Bishop $29.8K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
UNITED WE CAN	D	$14.3K	48%	for Sanford Bishop
WITH HONOR FUND II, INC.	D	$11.0K	37%	for Sanford Bishop
1000 WOMEN STRONG PAC	D	$4.4K	15%	for Sanford Bishop
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Sanford Bishop

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Oct 30

Decision Desk HQ

Safe D

Oct 10

Elections Daily

Safe D

Oct 9

Inside Elections

Safe D

Mar 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-02

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks