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Races · house · 2024 · Georgia
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house · open seat

Patti Hewitt vs Buddy Carter

← Florida houseGeorgia house →
Safe RR +28.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Hewitt (D)
99% Carter (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +28.8 · 80% CI R+40.8 → R+16.8
Actual result R+24.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.8 (10th pctile) to R+16.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.8
80% CI: R +40.8 → R +16.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+24.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBuddy Carter0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPatti Hewitt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJoyce Griggs0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-04-02
Buddy CarterH4GA01039 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$3.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
INTERNATIONAL AUTO LOGISTICS$7.5K
ATLANTIC WASTE SERVICES$6.6K
CROSS POTOMAC CONSULTING LLC$6.6K
SADOWSKI CO$6.6K
SAVANNAH PILOTS ASSOC$6.6K
Patti HewittOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$65.8K
Disburse
$65.3K
Cash on hand
$1.1K
Debts
$7.5K
Top industries
Education$500
Top contributors
NA$2.0K
BARUCH COLLEGE$500
ACLUF GEORGIA$500
UNIFIED COMPLIANCE$500
EXIT 29 STORAGE$500
Joyce GriggsOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$788
Disburse
$942.4
Cash on hand
$79.57
Debts
$84.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$5.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$5.0K · 100%
Top spender
ALLIANCE FOR PHARMA…
For / against split
For Carter $5.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
ALLIANCE FOR PHARMACY COMPOUNDING PAC (COMP PAC)R$5.0K100%for Buddy Carter

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Oct 30
Decision Desk HQ
Safe R
May 31
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-04-02
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks