NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · Florida
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Dan McDow vs John Hearton

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe RR +34.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% McDow (D)
99% Hearton (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +34.8 · 80% CI R+46.8 → R+22.8
Actual result Mike Haridopolos +24.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+34.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+46.8 (10th pctile) to R+22.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +34.8
80% CI: R +46.8 → R +22.8 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultMike Haridopolos +24.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJohn Hearton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDan McDow0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-02-07
John HeartonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$379.9K
Disburse
$362.3K
Cash on hand
$17.6K
Debts
$251.4K
Top industries
Health professionals$3.3K
Crop production$500
Insurance$500
Top contributors
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL$3.3K
MAG AEROSPACE$3.3K
SMX, INC$1.4K
UNCLE JIMS WORM FARM$500
DAN ADOVASIO INSURANCE$500
Dan McDowOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$72.6K
Disburse
$72.6K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
COMMERICAL RESTORATION COMPANY$3.3K
NOT EMPLOYER$1.5K
JULIAN KAUFMANN$1.5K
KNUDSON BRAIN SPINE INJURY LA$1.0K
DBMC$601.1

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$935
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$935 · 100%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Posey $935

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Sep 6
Elections Daily
Safe R
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-02-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks