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Races · house · 2024 · Florida
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Michael Davey vs Elvira Salazar

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe RR +25.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Davey (D)
99% Salazar (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +25.3 · 80% CI R+37.3 → R+13.3
Actual result R+20.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.3 (10th pctile) to R+13.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.3
80% CI: R +37.3 → R +13.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+20.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RElvira Salazar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMichael Davey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Elvira SalazarOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$14.3K
Top industries
Health professionals$31.7K
Education$13.2K
Top contributors
LEON MEDICAL CENTERS$31.7K
TECNOGLAS$19.8K
KASEYA$15.9K
LEFRAK$13.2K
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$13.2K

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R5
Safe R1
CNalysis
Likely R
Aug 17
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Aug 15
Elections Daily
Safe R
Sep 6
FiveThirtyEight
Likely R
Aug 17
Inside Elections
Likely R
Jul 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks