Races · house · 2024 · Florida

house · open seat

Florida house

← Florida house Florida house →

Safe RR +29.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% (D)
99% Mast (R)
Win probability
Democrat1% (D)
Brian Mast99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +29.4
80% CIR+41.4 → R+17.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +29.4 · 80% CI R+41.4 → R+17.4
Actual result R+23.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.4 (10th pctile) to R+17.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +29.4

80% CI: R +41.4 → R +17.4 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+23.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RBrian Mast0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-09-19

Brian MastH6FL18097 ↗

Receipts

$4.0M

Disburse

$4.3M

Cash on hand

$1.8M

Debts

Top industries

Real estate$7.6K

Education$6.6K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$30.8K

EDW C LEVY CO$13.2K

NOBLE PROPERTIES$7.6K

EXPEDITED TRAVEL$7.1K

INVESTMENTS LIMITED$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$29.7K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$29.7K · 100%

Top spender

AMERICAN VETERANS I…

For / against split

For Mast $29.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
AMERICAN VETERANS INITIATIVE PAC	R	$27.6K	93%	for Brian Mast
AMERICAN VETERANS SUPPORT GROUP PAC	R	$2.1K	7%	for Brian Mast

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Sep 6

Elections Daily

Safe R

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jul 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-09-19

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks