Races · house · 2024 · Florida

house · open seat

Florida house

← Florida house Florida house →

Safe DD +53.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +53.4
80% CID+41.4 → D+65.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +53.4 · 80% CI D+41.4 → D+65.4
Actual result Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick +100.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+22) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+53.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+41.4 (10th pctile) to D+65.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +53.4

80% CI: D +41.4 → D +65.4 · win prob 99%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Sheila Cherfilus-Mccormick +100.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

DSheila Cherfilus-McCormick0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormickOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$639.2K

Disburse

$634.4K

Cash on hand

$7.5K

Debts

$4.2M

Top industries

Health professionals$6.6K

Securities & investment$6.6K

Top contributors

FIGGERS$13.2K

KEITH$6.6K

HCA FLORIDA HEALTHCARE$6.6K

HOUSING INC.$6.6K

COMPREHENSIVE HEALTH CENTER$6.6K

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Sep 6

Elections Daily

Safe D

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jul 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Sep 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks