Races · house · 2024 · Florida
house · open seat
Kari Lerner vs Byron Donalds
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+40.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+52.6 (10th pctile) to R+28.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +40.6
80% CI: R +52.6 → R +28.6 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+32.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRByron Donalds0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKari Lerner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-16Byron DonaldsH2FL14186 ↗
Receipts
$6.6M
Disburse
$5.6M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$5.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$17.9K
ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ$13.2K
ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC$12.8K
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$9.9K
ADVANCE FINANCIAL 247$7.6K
Kari Lerner
Receipts
$184.1K
Disburse
$178.5K
Cash on hand
$5.5K
Debts
$3.7K
Top industries
Education$225
Education · $225
- University of Miami · $225
Individuals $225 · PACs $0
Real estate$100
Real estate · $100
- Keller Williams Realty · $100
Individuals $100 · PACs $0
Top contributors
SYSTEM DYNAMICS INC.$2.0K
DC KERCKHOFF CO$500
RRTIRED$500
ASSOCIATES OF DERMATOLOGY$500
TRANSOR FILTER USA$300
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$48.0K
D side
$35.0K · 73%
R side
$13.0K · 27%
Top spender
MUST WIN. CAN WIN.
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUST WIN. CAN WIN. super pac · boosts D
| D | $35.0K | 73% | against Byron Donalds |
| PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE super pac · boosts R
| R | $10.0K | 21% | for Byron Donalds |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $3.0K | 6% | for Byron Donalds |
| GUN RIGHTS AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $48 | 0% | for Byron Donalds |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Sep 6
- Elections Daily · Sep 6
- Inside Elections · Jul 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 6
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-16
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks