Races · house · 2024 · Florida
house · open seat
Whitney Fox vs Anna Paulina Luna
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.4 (10th pctile) to R+10.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.4
80% CI: R +34.4 → R +10.4 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+9.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRAnna Paulina Luna0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DWhitney Fox0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-23Whitney FoxH4FL13200 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$20.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Internet$8.0K
Internet · $8.0K
- Google · $8.0K
Individuals $8.0K · PACs $0
Education$6.6K
Education · $6.6K
- Global It University · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$6.6K
Oil & gas · $6.6K
- Risser Oil Corp. · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
JOE MOORE STRATEGIES LLC$9.9K
GOOGLE$8.0K
WILKIE & FARR$6.6K
ALLIANCE CANCER SPECIALISTS$6.6K
GROUNDWORK$6.6K
Anna Paulina LunaH0FL13158 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$131.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Computers / electronics$14.7K
Computers / electronics · $14.7K
- Red Apple Group · $14.7K
Individuals $14.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
RED APPLE GROUP$14.7K
ULINE$13.2K
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$13.2K
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$9.9K
INTERACTIVE BROKERS$9.9K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.3M
D side
$1.8M · 55%
R side
$1.5M · 45%
Top spender
WELCOMEPAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELCOMEPAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.8M | 55% | for Whitney Fox |
| WIN IT BACK PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $974.4K | 29% | against Whitney Fox |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $258.5K | 8% | for Anna Paulina Luna |
| HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $135.2K | 4% | for Anna Paulina Luna |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $87.4K | 3% | for Anna Paulina Luna |
| WOMEN FOR AMERICA'S FREEDOM super pac · boosts R
| R | $20.0K | 1% | for Anna Paulina Luna |
| ANIMAL WELLNESS ACTION pac · boosts R
| R | $11.3K | 0% | for Anna Paulina Luna |
| MOMSRISING TOGETHER pac · boosts D
| D | $384.61 | 0% | for Whitney Fox |
| FLORIDA FREEDOM PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $132 | 0% | for Whitney Fox |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Elections Daily · Oct 24
Likely R4
Likely R · 4 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Sep 6
- Inside Elections · Oct 30
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 23
CNalysis
Likely RThe Cook Political Report
Likely RElections Daily
Lean RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks