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Races · house · 2024 · Colorado
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Yadira Caraveo vs Gabe Evans

← Colorado houseConnecticut house →
Tilt DD +0.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
54% Caraveo (D)
46% Evans (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +0.6 · 80% CI R+11.4 → D+12.6
Actual result R+0.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 54% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+0.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.4 (10th pctile) to D+12.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 54% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +0.6
80% CI: R +11.4 → D +12.6 · win prob 54%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+0.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DYadira Caraveo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGabe Evans0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IMorgan Law0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LGaylon Ken0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12
Gabe EvansH4CO08034 ↗
Receipts
$2.7M
Disburse
$2.7M
Cash on hand
$75.0K
Debts
$76.0K
Top industries
Education$6.9K
Top contributors
HASELDEN CONSTRUCTION$13.5K
BT CONSTRUCTION$11.6K
SPIERER WOODWARD$9.9K
FISHER INVESTMENTS$9.9K
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$9.9K
Yadira CaraveoH2CO08020 ↗
Receipts
$8.1M
Disburse
$8.1M
Cash on hand
$4.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$38.0K
Govt employees$16.4K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO$38.0K
NOT-EMPLOYED$31.6K
NO EMPLOYER$27.1K
INSIGHT PARTNERS$19.8K
COINBASE$19.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$24.3M
D side
$17.0M · 70%
R side
$7.3M · 30%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Caraveo $3.0M
Against Evans $14.0M
Against Caraveo $6.0M
For Evans $1.2M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$11.5M47%against Gabe Evans
NRCCR$3.3M14%against Yadira Caraveo
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.3M9%against Yadira Caraveo
MAINSTREAM COLORADO FUNDD$2.0M8%for Yadira Caraveo
VPPD$1.1M4%against Gabe Evans
EDF ACTION VOTESD$984.8K4%against Gabe Evans
AMERICA PACR$566.6K2%for Gabe Evans
CHC BOLD PACD$445.1K2%against Gabe Evans
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$300.0K1%for Yadira Caraveo

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tilt D1
Tossup2
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Jul 27
Elections Daily
Lean D
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Tossup
Sep 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks