Races · house · 2024 · Colorado
house · open seat
Jason Crow vs John Fabbricatore
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+29.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+17.4 (10th pctile) to D+41.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +29.4
80% CI: D +17.4 → D +41.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+20.5 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDJason Crow0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJohn Fabbricatore0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-09-27John FabbricatoreH4CO06129 ↗
Receipts
$282.5K
Disburse
$282.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$7.6K
Real estate · $7.6K
- Rj Investment Real Estate · $4.3K
- Max King Realty · $3.3K
Individuals $7.6K · PACs $0
Internet$3.3K
Internet · $3.3K
- M Squared Strategies, LLC · $3.3K
Individuals $3.3K · PACs $0
Health professionals$2.0K
Health professionals · $2.0K
- Mdps · $2.0K
Individuals $2.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
RJ INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE$4.3K
DANIELS MANUFACTURING INC$3.3K
ORENCO SYSTEMS$3.3K
MAX KING REALTY$3.3K
TRANSWEST TRUCKS$3.3K
Jason CrowH8CO06229 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$2.0M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$24.9K
Lawyers / law firms · $24.9K
- Holland & Hart LLP · $18.3K
- Fenwick & West LLP · $6.6K
Individuals $24.9K · PACs $0
Education$7.2K
Education · $7.2K
- University of Colorado · $7.2K
Individuals $7.2K · PACs $0
Casinos / gambling$6.6K
Casinos / gambling · $6.6K
- Insight Venture Mgmt · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
HOLLAND & HART LLP$18.3K
PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES$17.2K
UNITED LAUNCH ALLIANCE$16.5K
DISH NETWORK$14.2K
PALANTIR$7.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$52.6K
D side
$22.7K · 43%
R side
$29.9K · 57%
Top spender
INSPIRE COLORADO
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSPIRE COLORADO super pac · boosts R
| R | $29.9K | 57% | for John Fabbricatore |
| WITH HONOR FUND II, INC. super pac · boosts D
| D | $22.6K | 43% | for Jason Crow |
| SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION) pac · boosts D
| D | $21 | 0% | for Jason Crow |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Jason Crow |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 27
- Elections Daily · Jun 7
- Inside Elections · Sep 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 7
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Safe DElections Daily
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-09-27
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks