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Races · house · 2024 · Colorado
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

River Gassen vs Jeff Crank

← Colorado houseColorado house →
Safe RR +25.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Gassen (D)
99% Crank (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +25.9 · 80% CI R+37.9 → R+13.9
Actual result R+13.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.9 (10th pctile) to R+13.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.9
80% CI: R +37.9 → R +13.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJeff Crank0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DRiver Gassen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-25
Jeff CrankH6CO05142 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$66.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
NOR'WOOD FOUNDATION$13.2K
CLASSIC HOMES$9.9K
COGITEC$6.6K
LAND TITLE$6.6K
THE EQUITY GROUP LLC$6.6K
River GassenOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$172.3K
Disburse
$163.4K
Cash on hand
$9.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Air transport$3.3K
Top contributors
PHASE TWO CONSULTING$5.7K
LOCKHEED MARTIN$3.3K
BITMASTER$2.9K
COLORADO TOUR LINE, LLC$2.4K
PHOTOGRAPHER$2.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.4M
D side
$102.4K · 4%
R side
$2.3M · 96%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
For / against split
For Reagan $77.8K
Against Crank $24.6K
For Crank $2.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$1.8M75%for Jeff Crank
AMERICA LEADS ACTION INC.R$433.6K18%for Jeff Crank
CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.R$40.4K2%for Jeff Crank
GUN RIGHTS AMERICAD$24.6K1%against Jeff Crank
GO AMERICA PACR$22.3K1%for Jeff Crank

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R4
CNalysis
Likely R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 27
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe R
Sep 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-25
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks