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Races · house · 2024 · Colorado
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Trisha Calvarese vs Lauren Boebert

← Colorado houseColorado house →
Safe RR +29.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Calvarese (D)
99% Boebert (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +29.7 · 80% CI R+41.7 → R+17.7
Actual result R+11.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.7 (10th pctile) to R+17.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +29.7
80% CI: R +41.7 → R +17.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+11.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RLauren Boebert0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTrisha Calvarese0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-16
Lauren BoebertH0CO03165 ↗
Receipts
$4.8M
Disburse
$5.4M
Cash on hand
$159.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
WATERVALLEY$9.9K
BETTERIT LAND & TITLE HOLDING$7.0K
FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN MANAGEMENT$6.6K
MOUNTAIRE CORP$6.6K
VETERANS FOR TRUMP$6.6K
Trisha CalvareseH4CO04280 ↗
Receipts
$4.4M
Disburse
$4.3M
Cash on hand
$51.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$3.3K
Top contributors
LIONSGATE$6.6K
RACE STREET MANAGEMENT$6.6K
HOPE CLINIC$3.3K
CCSF$3.3K
EXETOR$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.8M
D side
$1.3M · 70%
R side
$540.0K · 30%
Top spender
DEFEAT THE EXTREME …
For / against split
For Calvarese $7.5K
Against Boebert $1.3M
For Boebert $540.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEFEAT THE EXTREME FUNDD$912.1K50%against Lauren Boebert
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$461.8K25%for Lauren Boebert
COLORADO UNITED PACD$320.0K18%against Lauren Boebert
AMERICAN FREEDOM COALITION PACR$74.0K4%for Lauren Boebert
DEMOCRACY WINSD$39.6K2%against Lauren Boebert
OUR DEMOCRACY PACD$4.5K0%for Trisha Calvarese
ITALIAN AMERICAN DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP COUNCILD$3.0K0%for Trisha Calvarese

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 27
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe R
Sep 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 7

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-16
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks