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Races · house · 2024 · Colorado
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Adam Frisch vs Russ Andrews

← Colorado houseColorado house →
Safe RR +18.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Frisch (D)
99% Andrews (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +18.3 · 80% CI R+30.3 → R+6.3
Actual result R+5.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.3 (10th pctile) to R+6.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.3
80% CI: R +30.3 → R +6.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+5.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RRuss Andrews0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAdam Frisch0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-02
Adam FrischH2CO03351 ↗
Receipts
$17.2M
Disburse
$17.3M
Cash on hand
$239.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Russ AndrewsOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$471.4K
Disburse
$471.4K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$303.1K
Top industries
Crop production$1.0K
Top contributors
TCFG WEALTH MANAGEMENT$5.0K
LEXUS OF NAPERVILLE$3.7K
TIMBERLINE BANK$2.0K
DBA: DAVID L WILSON$2.0K
WEAR, TRAVERS, PERKINS LLC$1.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$4.3M
D side
$1.3M · 31%
R side
$3.0M · 69%
Top spender
PROJECT 218
For / against split
For Frisch $1.2M
Against Hurd $129.9K
Against Frisch $102.3K
For Hurd $2.9M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PROJECT 218D$934.8K22%for Adam Frisch
WELCOMEPACD$243.5K6%for Adam Frisch
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$94.5K2%against Adam Frisch
NOVEMBER COALITIOND$11.6K0%for Adam Frisch
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$7.8K0%against Adam Frisch

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R4
Likely R1
CNalysis
Lean R
Aug 5
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 31
Elections Daily
Lean R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Lean R
May 8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Jul 30

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-02
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks