Races · house · 2024 · California

house · open seat

Josh Harder vs Kevin Lincoln

← California house California house →

Likely DD +6.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
86% Harder (D)
14% Lincoln (R)
Win probability
Josh Harder86% (D)
Kevin Lincoln14% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +6.4
80% CIR+5.6 → D+18.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +6.4 · 80% CI R+5.6 → D+18.4
Actual result D+3.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 86% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.6 (10th pctile) to D+18.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 86% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +6.4

80% CI: R +5.6 → D +18.4 · win prob 86%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+3.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJosh Harder0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RKevin Lincoln0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-24

Josh HarderH8CA10126 ↗

Receipts

$5.4M

Disburse

$4.9M

Cash on hand

$1.7M

Debts

Top industries

Internet$34.6K

Lawyers / law firms$29.1K

Education$25.6K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$34.6K

BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS$28.1K

STANFORD UNIVERSITY$25.6K

BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP$19.8K

COOLEY LLP$16.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.5M

D side

$168.9K · 7%

R side

$2.3M · 93%

Top spender

NRCC

For / against split

For Harder $168.9K

Against Harder $2.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NRCC	R	$2.3M	92%	against Josh Harder
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	D	$162.8K	6%	for Josh Harder
MAJORITY PAC	R	$31.1K	1%	against Josh Harder
NORTH VALLEY LABOR FEDERATION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION	D	$2.5K	0%	for Josh Harder
THEY SEE BLUE	D	$2.4K	0%	for Josh Harder

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D1

Likely D1

Lean D1

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Feb 1

Elections Daily

Lean D

Mar 21

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tossupmodel

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-24

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks