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Races · house · 2024 · California
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house · open seat

Mike Barkley vs Tom McClintock

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe RR +30.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Barkley (D)
99% McClintock (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +30.0 · 80% CI R+42.0 → R+18.0
Actual result R+23.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+30.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+42.0 (10th pctile) to R+18.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +30.0
80% CI: R +42.0 → R +18.0 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+23.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RTom McClintock0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMike Barkley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2023-12-22
Tom McClintockH8CA04152 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$148.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$6.6K
Top contributors
SOVEREIGN NATION$21.6K
NOT PROVIDED$14.1K
TECHNICAL MAINTENANCE SUPPORT, INC.$10.7K
VAQUERO ENERGY, INC.$6.6K
SIERRA PACIFIC IND.$6.6K
Mike BarkleyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$86.7K
Disburse
$82.1K
Cash on hand
$4.7K
Debts
$537.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
NABET-CWA LOCAL 59051$550
HGST INC.$175

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$157.29
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$157.29 · 100%
Top spender
REFORM LEADERS PAC
For / against split
For McClintock $157.29
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
REFORM LEADERS PACR$157.29100%for Tom McClintock

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2023-12-22
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks