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Races · house · 2024 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Mike Levin vs Sheryl Adams

← California houseCalifornia house →
Likely DD +9.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
94% Levin (D)
6% Adams (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +9.4 · 80% CI R+2.6 → D+21.4
Actual result D+4.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 94% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.6 (10th pctile) to D+21.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.4
80% CI: R +2.6 → D +21.4 · win prob 94%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+4.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMike Levin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSheryl Adams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12
Mike LevinH8CA49058 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sheryl AdamsH4CA49131 ↗
Receipts
$241.7K
Disburse
$241.7K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$3.3K
Top contributors
CORNERSTONE LEGACY$3.3K
BRIXTON CAPITAL$3.3K
KIRKLAND & ELLIS$3.3K
MTSG, INC.$2.0K
BEJAC CORPORATION$1.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$906.4K
D side
$583.1K · 64%
R side
$323.3K · 36%
Top spender
LCV VICTORY FUND
For / against split
For Levin $583.1K
Against Levin $320.2K
For Adams $3.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$350.6K39%for Mike Levin
CALIFORNIA COMEBACK FUNDR$284.7K31%against Mike Levin
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$186.1K21%for Mike Levin
MAJORITY PACR$35.5K4%against Mike Levin
WORKING AMERICAD$34.7K4%for Mike Levin
INVEST IN A STRONG AND SECURE AMERICAR$3.1K0%for Sheryl Adams

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D1
Lean D2
CNalysis
Safe D
Oct 15
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 14
Elections Daily
Lean D
Oct 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Sep 29

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks