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Races · house · 2024 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Stephen Houlahan vs Darrell Issa

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe RR +27.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Houlahan (D)
99% Issa (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +27.7 · 80% CI R+39.7 → R+15.7
Actual result R+18.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.7 (10th pctile) to R+15.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.7
80% CI: R +39.7 → R +15.7 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+18.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDarrell Issa0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DStephen Houlahan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-18
Darrell IssaH0CA48024 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$755.4K
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Debts
$5.1M
Top industries
Internet$18.4K
Top contributors
ARMSCOR PRECISION INTL$18.2K
GOOGLE$11.4K
FRANKLIN SQUARE GROUP$7.0K
1A AUTO$6.8K
VIBRANT TECH$6.7K
Stephen HoulahanH2CA50174 ↗
Receipts
$30.0K
Disburse
$33.3K
Cash on hand
$7.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Restaurants & drinking$75
Top contributors
VA$535
U. OF CALIFORNIA$500
ALBERTSONS$500
THE OGAN TRUST$500
ACTIVE MOTIF$200

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$14.9K
D side
$170.13 · 1%
R side
$14.8K · 99%
Top spender
AMERICAN POLICE AND…
For / against split
For Houlahan $170.13
For Issa $14.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICAN POLICE AND TROOPERS COALITION PACR$14.8K99%for Darrell Issa
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PACD$170.131%for Stephen Houlahan

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-18
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks