Races · house · 2024 · California

house · open seat

Norma Torres vs Mike Cargile

← California house California house →

Safe DD +20.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Torres (D)
1% Cargile (R)
Win probability
Norma Torres99% (D)
Mike Cargile1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +20.0
80% CID+8.0 → D+32.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +20.0 · 80% CI D+8.0 → D+32.0
Actual result D+16.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.0 (10th pctile) to D+32.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +20.0

80% CI: D +8.0 → D +32.0 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+16.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DNorma Torres0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMike Cargile0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-18

Norma TorresH4CA35031 ↗

Receipts

$943.0K

Disburse

$986.9K

Cash on hand

$303.3K

Debts

$300

Top industries

Securities & investment$6.6K

Internet$3.3K

Top contributors

HDC CONSTRUCTION$6.6K

GOLDMAN SACHS$6.6K

DIVERSIFIED PACIFIC DEVELOPMENT GROUP$6.2K

WTRSHD CAPITAL LLC$5.8K

OGILVY GOVERNMENT RELATIONS$3.8K

Mike CargileOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$141.2K

Disburse

$142.1K

Cash on hand

$470.77

Debts

$13.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

STEADFAST$7.0K

DBA: RUFUS HAYDEN$3.3K

EXPERT COMPUTER$3.3K

DBA: JOSEPH PIZZA$3.3K

STOR-LOC$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$325.14

D side

$325.14 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

COURAGE CALIFORNIA …

For / against split

For Torres $325.14

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	D	$274.68	84%	for Norma Torres
PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PAC	D	$50.46	16%	for Norma Torres

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Feb 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Safe Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks