Races · house · 2024 · California

house · open seat

Jessica Morse vs Kevin Kiley

← California house California house →

Safe RR +15.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Morse (D)
99% Kiley (R)
Win probability
Jessica Morse1% (D)
Kevin Kiley99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +15.5
80% CIR+27.5 → R+3.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +15.5 · 80% CI R+27.5 → R+3.5
Actual result R+10.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+15.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+27.5 (10th pctile) to R+3.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +15.5

80% CI: R +27.5 → R +3.5 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+10.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RKevin Kiley0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DJessica Morse0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-26

Jessica MorseH8CA04210 ↗

Receipts

$3.1M

Disburse

$3.3M

Cash on hand

$24.3K

Debts

$2.1K

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$29.7K

Govt employees$25.4K

Internet$14.8K

Education$6.8K

Top contributors

SINGLETON SCHREIBER LLP$29.7K

STATE OF CALIFORNIA$25.4K

GOOGLE$14.8K

UC BERKELEY$12.6K

3 ARTS ENTERTAINMENT$9.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$6.5K

D side

$6.5K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

ACTIVATE AMERICA

For / against split

For Morse $6.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
ACTIVATE AMERICA	D	$2.5K	38%	for Jessica Morse
PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND	D	$2.0K	31%	for Jessica Morse
PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES OF CALIFORNIA VOTES PAC	D	$1.4K	21%	for Jessica Morse
INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC.	D	$286.59	4%	for Jessica Morse
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	D	$274.69	4%	for Jessica Morse

Editorial ratings · 2 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R1

Likely R1

CNalysis

Lean R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Feb 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-26

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks