Races · house · 2024 · California

house · open seat

Oscar Ortiz vs Miguel Chapa

← California house California house →

Likely DD +12.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% Ortiz (D)
2% Chapa (R)
Win probability
Oscar Ortiz98% (D)
Miguel Chapa2% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +12.2
80% CID+0.2 → D+24.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +12.2 · 80% CI D+0.2 → D+24.2
Actual result D+12.5 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.2 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+24.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +12.2

80% CI: D +0.2 → D +24.2 · win prob 98%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+12.5
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DOscar Ortiz0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMiguel Chapa0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-18

Miguel ChapaH4CA25230 ↗

Receipts

$20.7K

Disburse

$20.0K

Cash on hand

$726.46

Debts

$20.9K

Top industries

Education$250

Top contributors

CRESTWOOD COMMUNITIES$500

IVEDC$500

SMITH-KANDAL$250

Oscar OrtizOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$38.0K

Disburse

$34.1K

Cash on hand

$4.1K

Debts

$5.0K

Top industries

Casinos / gambling$3.3K

Health professionals$3.1K

Insurance$1.0K

Education$1.0K

Internet$1.0K

Top contributors

FANTASY SPRINGS CASINO$3.3K

VO MEDICAL CENTER$3.1K

EOS$1.7K

THE NATIVE GENERATIONS GROUP$1.1K

CAMPAIGN COMMUNICATION SOLUTIO$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$497.9

D side

$340.61 · 68%

R side

$157.29 · 32%

Top spender

REFORM LEADERS PAC

For / against split

For Ruiz $340.61

For Chapa $157.29

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
REFORM LEADERS PAC	R	$157.29	32%	for Miguel Chapa

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Feb 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks