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Races · house · 2024 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Zoe Lofgren vs Peter Hernandez

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe DD +40.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Lofgren (D)
1% Hernandez (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +40.8 · 80% CI D+28.8 → D+52.8
Actual result D+29.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+40.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+28.8 (10th pctile) to D+52.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +40.8
80% CI: D +28.8 → D +52.8 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+29.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DZoe Lofgren0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RPeter Hernandez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-22
Zoe LofgrenH4CA16049 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$239.8K
Debts
$38.5K
Top industries
Computers / electronics$59.9K
Internet$44.4K
Lawyers / law firms$19.8K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$44.4K
FRAGOMEN$34.4K
CISCO$21.8K
BERRY APPLEMAN & LEIDEN LLP$19.8K
BUTLER AMUSEMENTS$19.6K
Peter HernandezH2CA18163 ↗
Receipts
$198.2K
Disburse
$199.1K
Cash on hand
$1.4K
Debts
$2.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ROBERT A BOTHMAN CONSTRUCTION$6.7K
VALLEY HARVESTING & PACKING INC$3.4K
PMA SERVICES$3.4K
DBA: RUFUS HAYDEN$3.3K
SANDMAN$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$398.8K
D side
$398.7K · 100%
R side
$157.29 · 0%
Top spender
CENTRAL COAST VALUE…
For / against split
For Lofgren $398.7K
For Hernandez $157.29
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CENTRAL COAST VALUES PACD$349.7K88%for Zoe Lofgren
RESOLUTE COURAGE PACD$46.2K12%for Zoe Lofgren
MONTEREY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEED$1.5K0%for Zoe Lofgren
SOUTH BAY AFL-CIO LABOR COUNCILD$1.1K0%for Zoe Lofgren
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PACD$274.730%for Zoe Lofgren
REFORM LEADERS PACR$157.290%for Peter Hernandez

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Feb 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-22
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks