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Races · house · 2024 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Sam Liccardo vs Peter Ohtaki

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe DD +69.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Liccardo (D)
1% Ohtaki (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +69.3 · 80% CI D+57.3 → D+81.3
Actual result D+16.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+26) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+69.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+57.3 (10th pctile) to D+81.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +69.3
80% CI: D +57.3 → D +81.3 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+16.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DSam Liccardo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RPeter Ohtaki0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12
Sam LiccardoH4CA16197 ↗
Receipts
$6.2M
Disburse
$6.1M
Cash on hand
$90.4K
Debts
$199.9K
Top industries
Internet$99.1K
Education$61.1K
Lawyers / law firms$41.7K
Computers / electronics$21.6K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$61.2K
STANFORD UNIVERSITY$61.1K
COTCHETT, PITRE & MCCARTHY, LLP$41.7K
BROADCOM INC.$40.0K
META$37.9K
Peter OhtakiH4CA16163 ↗
Receipts
$94.0K
Disburse
$93.9K
Cash on hand
$130.19
Debts
$106.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ROUTE ONE INVESTMENT COMPANY LP$3.3K
DEVCON CONSTRUCTION, INC.$2.5K
LYTEN, INC.$500
DOSTART DEVELOPMENT COMPANY$500
ADAM EQUIPMENT INC$500

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$10.8M
D side
$9.2M · 85%
R side
$1.6M · 15%
Top spender
NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTS
For / against split
For Liccardo $9.2M
Against Liccardo $1.6M
For Ohtaki $5.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NEIGHBORS FOR RESULTSD$6.8M62%for Sam Liccardo
LET'S GET IT DONE PACR$1.6M15%against Sam Liccardo
CHC BOLD PACD$1.1M10%for Sam Liccardo
NEW DEMOCRAT MAJORITYD$800.0K7%for Sam Liccardo
SPIRIT OF DEMOCRACY AMERICAR$5.0K0%for Peter Ohtaki
REFORM LEADERS PACR$157.290%for Peter Ohtaki

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Feb 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks