Races · house · 2024 · California
house · open seat
Kevin Mullin vs Anna Kramer
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+26) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+66.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+54.0 (10th pctile) to D+78.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +66.0
80% CI: D +54.0 → D +78.0 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+46.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDKevin Mullin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAnna Kramer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-28Kevin MullinH2CA14162 ↗
Receipts
$808.1K
Disburse
$778.9K
Cash on hand
$51.8K
Debts
$244
Top industries
Pharma / health products$12.8K
Pharma / health products · $12.8K
- Gilead Sciences · $9.5K
- Sutro Biopharma, INC. · $3.3K
Individuals $12.8K · PACs $0
Health professionals$6.6K
Health professionals · $6.6K
- Peter J Mandell Md PC · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$6.6K
Lawyers / law firms · $6.6K
- Gibson Dunn · $3.3K
- Cotchett, Pitre & Mccarthy, LLP · $3.3K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ARTICHOKE JOES$16.5K
GILEAD SCIENCES$9.5K
PETER J MANDELL MD PC$6.6K
FOSTER INTERSTATE MEDIA, INC.$6.6K
SKYKNIGHT CAPITAL$6.6K
Anna KramerH4CA15074 ↗
Receipts
$160.2K
Disburse
$158.5K
Cash on hand
$1.7K
Debts
$18.4K
Top industries
Real estate$6.5K
Real estate · $6.5K
- Wilbur Properties · $5.0K
- Mainstreet Properties · $1.5K
Individuals $6.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
WILBUR PROPERTIES$5.0K
DANIELS MANUFACTURING CORPORATION$3.3K
BEAN FAMILY TRUST$2.0K
AUTODESK$2.0K
MAINSTREET PROPERTIES$1.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.0K
D side
$4.8K · 97%
R side
$157.29 · 3%
Top spender
SAN FRANCISCO DEMOC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN FRANCISCO DEMOCRATIC COUNTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE party · boosts D
| D | $3.7K | 73% | for Kevin Mullin |
| TOGETHERSF ACTION pac · boosts D
| D | $889.26 | 18% | for Kevin Mullin |
| COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $274.68 | 6% | for Kevin Mullin |
| REFORM LEADERS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $157.29 | 3% | for Anna Kramer |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Kevin Mullin |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Feb 1
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 22
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks