Races · house · 2024 · California

house · open seat

Adam Gray vs John Duarte

← California house California house →

Likely RR +10.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
4% Gray (D)
96% Duarte (R)
Win probability
Adam Gray4% (D)
John Duarte96% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +10.8
80% CIR+22.8 → D+1.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +10.8 · 80% CI R+22.8 → D+1.2
Actual result D+0.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.8 (10th pctile) to D+1.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +10.8

80% CI: R +22.8 → D +1.2 · win prob 4%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+0.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RJohn Duarte0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DAdam Gray0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-15

John DuarteH2CA13131 ↗

Receipts

$4.6M

Disburse

$4.4M

Cash on hand

$214.8K

Debts

$119.3K

Top industries

Crop production$19.8K

Insurance$19.8K

Top contributors

BROCCHINI FARMS$19.8K

CASACA VINEYARDS$15.6K

STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$13.2K

BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$13.2K

DUARTE NURSERY INC.$13.2K

Adam GrayH2CA13115 ↗

Receipts

$6.4M

Disburse

$6.3M

Cash on hand

$192.0K

Debts

$20.6K

Top industries

Internet$26.3K

Education$18.0K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$26.3K

N.A.$23.6K

NO EMPLOYER$19.8K

DRAFTKINGS$19.8K

STANFORD UNIVERSITY$18.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$15.5M

D side

$14.8M · 96%

R side

$690.4K · 4%

Top spender

HMP

For / against split

For Gray $117.2K

Against Duarte $14.7M

For Duarte $690.4K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HMP	D	$14.0M	91%	against John Duarte
PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES OF CALIFORNIA VOTES PAC	D	$339.6K	2%	against John Duarte
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$296.2K	2%	for John Duarte
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$227.6K	1%	for John Duarte
ANIMAL WELLNESS ACTION	D	$151.8K	1%	against John Duarte
VOTE PLANNED PARENTHOOD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, A PROJECT OF PLANNED PARENTHOOD NORTHERN CA ACTION FUND	D	$49.7K	0%	for Adam Gray
VOTAR ES PODER PAC	D	$34.6K	0%	for Adam Gray
COMMUNITY WATER CENTER ACTION FUND	D	$15.9K	0%	for Adam Gray
LUCETE LEADERSHIP FUND	D	$12.7K	0%	for Adam Gray
CALIFORNIANS FOR CHOICE	D	$3.4K	0%	for Adam Gray

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D2

Tilt D2

Tossup1

CNalysis

Tilt D

Nov 3

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Feb 1

Elections Daily

Lean D

Nov 3

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Oct 17

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-15

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks