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Races · house · 2024 · California
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Mark DeSaulnier vs Nolan Chen

← California houseCalifornia house →
Safe DD +44.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% DeSaulnier (D)
1% Chen (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +44.5 · 80% CI D+32.5 → D+56.5
Actual result D+32.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+44.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+32.5 (10th pctile) to D+56.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +44.5
80% CI: D +32.5 → D +56.5 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+32.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMark DeSaulnier0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RNolan Chen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJoe Sweeney0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-18
Nolan ChenH4CA10091 ↗
Receipts
$5.9K
Disburse
$5.9K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
SUTTER HEALTH$250
REBOUND TRADING$250
Mark DeSaulnierH0CA10073 ↗
Receipts
$665.0K
Disburse
$611.4K
Cash on hand
$629.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
TOWNSEND PUBLIC AFFAIRS$6.6K
SIGNATURE HOMES$6.6K
MACKENZIE CAPITAL$6.6K
ACTIVEHOURS INC.$6.0K
TAI GINSBERG & ASSOCIATES$4.8K
Joe SweeneyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$15.5K
Disburse
$14.4K
Cash on hand
$1.2K
Debts
$21.0K
Top industries
Pharma / health products$170
Insurance$25
Top contributors
BLOCK$3.3K
WOOD$3.3K
COMPASS$1.0K
WOLL2WOLL SOFTWARE$525
PHARMACEUTICAL$170

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.3K
D side
$284.68 · 22%
R side
$1.0K · 78%
Top spender
SPIRIT OF DEMOCRACY…
For / against split
For DeSaulnier $284.68
For Chen $1.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SPIRIT OF DEMOCRACY AMERICAR$1.0K78%for Nolan Chen
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PACD$274.6821%for Mark DeSaulnier
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$101%for Mark DeSaulnier

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Feb 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-18
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks