Races · house · 2024 · Arizona
house · open seat
Quacy Smith vs Paul Gosar
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+42.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+54.1 (10th pctile) to R+30.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +42.1
80% CI: R +54.1 → R +30.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+30.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetRPaul Gosar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DQuacy Smith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IClint Smith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJacob Chansley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-19Paul GosarH0AZ01259 ↗
Receipts
$478.5K
Disburse
$497.5K
Cash on hand
$91.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
SELF - EMPLOYED$23.6K
M3 COMP$11.6K
SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$9.9K
SAFTI$8.3K
LAKESIDE HEART VASCULAR CENTER$7.6K
Clint Smith
Receipts
$236.4K
Disburse
$213.6K
Cash on hand
$32.3K
Debts
$64.4K
Top industries
Internet$1.0K
Internet · $1.0K
- Google · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Air transport$1.0K
Air transport · $1.0K
- American Airlines · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Education$600
Education · $600
- Arizona State University · $600
Individuals $600 · PACs $0
Top contributors
PAC$3.3K
CHRISTY$2.4K
GOOGLE$1.0K
AMERICAN AIRLINES$1.0K
DENALI THERAPEUTICS$900
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$11.8K
D side
$9.2K · 78%
R side
$2.6K · 22%
Top spender
MISSION DEMOCRACY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISSION DEMOCRACY PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $9.2K | 78% | against Paul Gosar |
| HOUSE FREEDOM FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $2.6K | 22% | for Paul Gosar |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Jul 27
- Decision Desk HQ · Oct 20
- Elections Daily · Jun 7
- Inside Elections · Jul 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 7
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks