Races · house · 2024 · Arizona

house · open seat

Katrina Schaffner vs Andy Biggs

← Arizona house Arizona house →

Safe RR +29.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Schaffner (D)
99% Biggs (R)
Win probability
Katrina Schaffner1% (D)
Andy Biggs99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +29.5
80% CIR+41.5 → R+17.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +29.5 · 80% CI R+41.5 → R+17.5
Actual result R+20.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.5 (10th pctile) to R+17.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +29.5

80% CI: R +41.5 → R +17.5 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+20.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RAndy Biggs0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DKatrina Schaffner0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-16

Andy BiggsH6AZ05083 ↗

Receipts

$1.4M

Disburse

$1.2M

Cash on hand

$458.9K

Debts

Top industries

Health professionals$7.5K

Top contributors

SAULSBURY INDUSTRIES$9.9K

21ST CENTURY HEALTHCARE$7.5K

ULINE$6.6K

LEE BENSON$6.6K

HESS$6.6K

Katrina SchaffnerOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$69.7K

Disburse

$68.9K

Cash on hand

$889.9

Debts

Top industries

Computers / electronics$900

Top contributors

WOOLSTON & TARTER, PC$661

APPLE BANK$600

TRUWEST CREDIT UNION$500

INTEGRATED ONCOLOGY$500

HOME DEPOT$475

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.4K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$3.4K · 100%

Top spender

HOUSE FREEDOM FUND

For / against split

For Biggs $3.4K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE FREEDOM FUND	R	$3.4K	100%	for Andy Biggs

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jul 27

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

Oct 20

Elections Daily

Safe R

Jun 7

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jul 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 7

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-16

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks