Races · house · 2024 · Arizona

house · open seat

Greg Stanton vs Kelly Cooper

← Arizona house Arizona house →

Likely DD +12.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% Stanton (D)
2% Cooper (R)
Win probability
Greg Stanton98% (D)
Kelly Cooper2% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +12.9
80% CID+0.9 → D+24.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +12.9 · 80% CI D+0.9 → D+24.9
Actual result D+7.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.9 (10th pctile) to D+24.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +12.9

80% CI: D +0.9 → D +24.9 · win prob 98%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+7.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DGreg Stanton0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RKelly Cooper0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-25

Kelly CooperH2AZ09191 ↗

Receipts

$788.3K

Disburse

$816.9K

Cash on hand

$30.2K

Debts

$603.5K

Top industries

Education$6.6K

Top contributors

SPRAY SYSTEMS$13.2K

BILL LUKE CHRYSLER JEEP DODGE RAM$13.2K

WILKINSON WEALTH MANAGEMENT$7.8K

SPENCER'S$6.6K

INVESTMENTS LIMITED$6.6K

Greg StantonH8AZ09040 ↗

Receipts

$2.8M

Disburse

$1.8M

Cash on hand

$1.0M

Debts

Top industries

Education$7.3K

Top contributors

EB-5 NEW YORK STATE LLC$13.2K

SNELL & WILMER$8.7K

CRESCENT CROWN DISTRIBUTING$8.1K

ASU$7.8K

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY$7.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$79.9K

D side

$9.9K · 12%

R side

$70.0K · 88%

Top spender

ADVANCE LIBERTY PAC

For / against split

For Stanton $9.9K

For Cooper $70.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
ADVANCE LIBERTY PAC	R	$70.0K	88%	for Kelly Cooper
REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM FOR ALL FREEDOM FUND	D	$6.6K	8%	for Greg Stanton
DMFI PAC	D	$3.2K	4%	for Greg Stanton
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Greg Stanton

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

Likely D1

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jul 27

Decision Desk HQ

Likely D

Oct 20

Elections Daily

Safe D

Jun 7

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jul 27

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 7

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-25

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks