NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · Arkansas
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Caitlin Draper vs Clint Penzo

← Arkansas houseArkansas house →
Safe RR +38.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Draper (D)
99% Penzo (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +38.1 · 80% CI R+50.1 → R+26.1
Actual result R+7.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+38.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+50.1 (10th pctile) to R+26.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +38.1
80% CI: R +50.1 → R +26.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+7.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RClint Penzo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCaitlin Draper0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-03-14
Clint PenzoH4AR03073 ↗
Receipts
$123.2K
Disburse
$116.7K
Cash on hand
$6.5K
Debts
$30.0K
Top industries
Real estate$5.2K
Govt employees$2.3K
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$9.6K
MCNAUGHTON REAL ESTATE$5.2K
MAYNARD INC$3.3K
BOBANKS HOLDINGS$3.3K
LA TOUR CPA$3.3K
Caitlin DraperOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$258.7K
Disburse
$258.0K
Cash on hand
$757.96
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$10.6K
Top contributors
THE STITT GROUP$4.6K
WALMART$3.4K
UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS SYSTEM DIVISION$3.3K
UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS SYSTEM$3.3K
ZENDESK$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$18.4K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$18.4K · 100%
Top spender
CONSERVATIVES FOR A…
For / against split
For Penzo $18.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONSERVATIVES FOR ACTION PACR$18.4K100%for Clint Penzo

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jul 27
Decision Desk HQ
Safe R
May 31
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jul 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 7

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-03-14
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks