Races · house · 2022 · Wisconsin
house · open seat
Mike Van Someren vs Scott Fitzgerald
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.5 (10th pctile) to R+11.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.5
80% CI: R +35.5 → R +11.5 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+28.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRScott Fitzgerald0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMike Van Someren0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-02Scott FitzgeraldH0WI05113 ↗
Receipts
$996.7K
Disburse
$791.2K
Cash on hand
$392.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$5.8K
Real estate · $5.8K
- Continental Properties · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ULINE$11.6K
BGR GROUP$7.0K
ABC$6.8K
HORICON STATE BANK$5.8K
MARKET STREET INVESTMENTS$5.8K
Mike Van SomerenH2WI05275 ↗
Receipts
$145.8K
Disburse
$105.0K
Cash on hand
$40.7K
Debts
$50.0K
Top industries
Health professionals$1.5K
Health professionals · $1.5K
- Mayo Clinic Health System · $1.5K
Individuals $1.5K · PACs $0
Govt employees$1.0K
Govt employees · $1.0K
- US Federal Government · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Commercial banks$1.0K
Commercial banks · $1.0K
- US Bank Global Fund Services · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Education$800
Education · $800
- Wauwatosa School District · $800
Individuals $800 · PACs $0
Top contributors
ABG HOLDINGS LLC$2.5K
WALKER & DUNLOP$1.8K
MAYO CLINIC HEALTH SYSTEM$1.5K
DAVIS & KUELTHAU$1.1K
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT$1.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$94.4K
D side
$10 · 0%
R side
$94.4K · 100%
Top spender
US VETERANS ASSISTA…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US VETERANS ASSISTANCE FOUNDATION, PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $82.9K | 88% | for Scott Fitzgerald |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $7.0K | 7% | for Scott Fitzgerald |
| THE GUARDIAN FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $4.5K | 5% | for Scott Fitzgerald |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Mike Van Someren |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 7
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Mar 8
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-02
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks