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Races · house · 2022 · Wisconsin
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Brad Pfaff vs Derrick Van Orden

← Wisconsin houseWisconsin house →
Tilt DD +1.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
59% Pfaff (D)
41% Orden (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +1.3 · 80% CI R+10.7 → D+13.3
Actual result R+3.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 59% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+1.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+10.7 (10th pctile) to D+13.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 59% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +1.3
80% CI: R +10.7 → D +13.3 · win prob 59%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DBrad Pfaff0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDerrick Van Orden0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08
Brad PfaffH2WI03122 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$17.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$9.0K
Top contributors
EPIC$10.8K
STATE OF WISCONSIN$9.0K
VENN STRATEGIES$7.0K
NORDIC CONSULTING$6.0K
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES$5.8K
Derrick Van OrdenH0WI03175 ↗
Receipts
$6.5M
Disburse
$6.3M
Cash on hand
$177.7K
Debts
$40.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT INC.$24.2K
ARCHER AUTO GROUP$20.1K
SILENCER SHOP$17.5K
RMV$16.0K
ELGIN TOYOTA$12.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.3M
D side
$70.2K · 5%
R side
$1.3M · 95%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Pfaff $70.2K
Against Pfaff $1.2M
For Orden $69.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$730.9K55%against Brad Pfaff
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$400.4K30%against Brad Pfaff
LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR A SAFER AMERICA PACR$50.0K4%against Brad Pfaff
PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$45.0K3%for Derrick Van Orden
FOR OUR FUTURED$42.4K3%for Brad Pfaff
AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.R$22.7K2%for Derrick Van Orden
NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEED$16.6K1%for Brad Pfaff
THE GUARDIAN FUNDR$2.2K0%for Derrick Van Orden

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R1
Likely R4
Safe R1
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Oct 24
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Likely R
Sep 27
538
Likely R
Oct 5
Inside Elections
Lean R
Mar 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Oct 11

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks