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Races · house · 2022 · Wisconsin
house · open seat

Mark Pocan vs Erik Olsen

← Wisconsin houseWisconsin house →
Safe DD +35.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Pocan (D)
1% Olsen (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +35.4 · 80% CI D+23.4 → D+47.4
Actual result D+44.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+21) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+35.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+23.4 (10th pctile) to D+47.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +35.4
80% CI: D +23.4 → D +47.4 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+44.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMark Pocan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RErik Olsen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IDouglas Alexander0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-08-31
Mark PocanH2WI02124 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$992.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$4.0K
Pharma / health products$3.9K
Top contributors
EXACT SCIENCES$6.0K
VENTURE MANAGEMENT LLC$5.9K
ARENBERG HOLDINGS$5.8K
SIERRA NEVADA CORPORATION$5.8K
NESSEL DEVELOPMENT$4.9K
Erik OlsenOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$89.7K
Disburse
$87.6K
Cash on hand
$2.1K
Debts
$24.0K
Top industries
Real estate$625
Top contributors
NA$2.9K
EMINENT DOMAIN SERVICES LLC$2.0K
BENJAMIN F. EDWARDS$500
MADISON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE$500
BIRES CRANBERRY LLC$300

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$156.24
D side
$156.24 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
MOVEON.ORG POLITICA…
For / against split
For Pocan $156.24
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTIOND$125.5780%for Mark Pocan
HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN PACD$128%for Mark Pocan
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$106%for Mark Pocan
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.676%for Mark Pocan

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Mar 7
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Mar 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Mar 8

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-08-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks