Races · house · 2022 · Wisconsin
house · open seat
Ann Roe vs Bryan Steil
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 95% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.9 (10th pctile) to D+2.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.8
80% CI: R +21.9 → D +2.1 · win prob 5%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+9.0 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRBryan Steil0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAnn Roe0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ICharles Barman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-05Bryan SteilH8WI01156 ↗
Receipts
$3.6M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$1.5M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$37.0K
Securities & investment · $37.0K
- Blackstone · $24.2K
- Apollo Global Management · $12.8K
Individuals $37.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$8.7K
Lawyers / law firms · $8.7K
- Kirkland and Ellis · $8.7K
Individuals $8.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$24.2K
HERZOG CONTRACTING CORP.$17.4K
EPIC$16.6K
ABC SUPPLY$13.6K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$12.8K
Ann Roe
Receipts
$837.2K
Disburse
$814.3K
Cash on hand
$23.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$11.5K
Real estate · $11.5K
- Badger Properties · $11.5K
Individuals $11.5K · PACs $0
Education$6.0K
Education · $6.0K
- University of Wisconsin · $6.0K
Individuals $6.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
RYAN INC. CENTRAL$11.6K
BADGER PROPERTIES$11.5K
MERCY HEALTH$6.7K
NOT-EMPLOYED$6.2K
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN$6.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$27.6K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$27.6K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $26.2K | 95% | for Bryan Steil |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $1.4K | 5% | for Bryan Steil |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- The Economist · Sep 27
Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Mar 7
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Mar 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jul 27
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Likely R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks