Races · house · 2022 · Washington

house · open seat

Kim Schrier vs Reagan Dunn

← Washington house Washington house →

Likely DD +8.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
93% Schrier (D)
7% Dunn (R)
Win probability
Kim Schrier93% (D)
Reagan Dunn7% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +8.8
80% CIR+3.2 → D+20.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +8.8 · 80% CI R+3.2 → D+20.8
Actual result D+6.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 93% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.2 (10th pctile) to D+20.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +8.8

80% CI: R +3.2 → D +20.8 · win prob 93%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+6.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DKim Schrier0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RReagan Dunn0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LJustin Greywolf0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08

Kim SchrierH8WA08189 ↗

Receipts

$9.6M

Disburse

$11.0M

Cash on hand

$350.4K

Debts

Top industries

Computers / electronics$139.5K

Education$110.6K

Health professionals$23.8K

Air transport$15.9K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON$110.6K

MICROSOFT$77.2K

AMAZON$26.2K

VIRGINIA MASON MEDICAL CENTER$23.8K

AMAZON.COM$18.6K

Reagan DunnH2WA08208 ↗

Receipts

$884.6K

Disburse

$884.6K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Crop production$6.5K

Electric utilities$5.8K

Top contributors

NA$11.6K

BELLEVUE NISSAN$8.3K

HERMANSON COMPANY$6.8K

SPRINGBROOK FARMS$6.5K

RESPONDUS$5.8K

Justin GreywolfOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$5.7K

Disburse

$5.7K

Cash on hand

$-14.02

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

PROGRESSIVE INTERNATIONAL CORP$2.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$13.9M

D side

$1.6M · 12%

R side

$12.2M · 88%

Top spender

NRCC

For / against split

For Schrier $1.6M

Against Dunn $210.57

Against Schrier $12.2M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NRCC	R	$8.8M	63%	against Kim Schrier
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$3.4M	24%	against Kim Schrier
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUND	D	$431.3K	3%	for Kim Schrier
NATIONAL EMERGENCY MEDICINE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE / AMERICAN COLLEGE OF EMERGENCY PHYSICIANS	D	$269.8K	2%	for Kim Schrier
AMERICAN ACADEMY OF DERMATOLOGY ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (SKINPAC)	D	$159.4K	1%	for Kim Schrier
FUSE WASHINGTON	D	$210.57	0%	against Reagan Dunn

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D3

Tossup2

Lean R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Feb 9

DDHQ

Lean D

Oct 28

The Economist

Lean D

Oct 31

538

Lean D

Nov 7

Inside Elections

Tossup

Mar 30

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks