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Races · house · 2022 · Washington
house · open seat

Derek Kilmer vs Elizabeth Kreiselmaier

← Washington houseWashington house →
Safe DD +20.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Kilmer (D)
1% Kreiselmaier (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +20.8 · 80% CI D+8.8 → D+32.8
Actual result D+20.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.8 (10th pctile) to D+32.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.8
80% CI: D +8.8 → D +32.8 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+20.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DDerek Kilmer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RElizabeth Kreiselmaier0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-09-28
Elizabeth KreiselmaierH0WA06081 ↗
Receipts
$426.2K
Disburse
$428.2K
Cash on hand
$9.0K
Debts
$16.5K
Top industries
Securities & investment$5.8K
Air transport$5.8K
Computers / electronics$2.9K
Education$2.0K
Top contributors
MORGAN STANLEY$5.8K
NORTHROP GROMMAN$5.8K
PROLOGUE DIGITAL$2.9K
EDGEWOOD HEIGHTS LLC$2.9K
QUALCOMM TECHNOLOGIES, INC.$2.9K
Derek KilmerH2WA06129 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$4.5M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Computers / electronics$6.8K
Top contributors
AMSC$13.1K
SECOND AVENUE PARTNERS$11.6K
MCKINSEY & CO$8.7K
DIGITAL CONTROL$8.7K
CITATION MANAGEMENT GROUP$7.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$3.6K
D side
$1.1K · 30%
R side
$2.5K · 70%
Top spender
PROTECT-AMERICA
For / against split
For Kilmer $1.0K
Against Kreiselmaier $8.67
For Kreiselmaier $2.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PROTECT-AMERICAR$2.5K70%for Elizabeth Kreiselmaier
FUSE WASHINGTOND$1.0K29%for Derek Kilmer
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$17.340%against Elizabeth Kreiselmaier
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Derek Kilmer
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYD$1.930%for Derek Kilmer

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Feb 9
DDHQ
Safe D
Nov 2
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jul 27
Inside Elections
Safe D
Mar 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Feb 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-09-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks