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Races · house · 2022 · Washington
house · open seat

Natasha Hill vs Cathy McMorris Rodgers

← Washington houseWashington house →
Likely RR +14.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Hill (D)
99% Rodgers (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +14.1 · 80% CI R+26.1 → R+2.1
Actual result R+19.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+14.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+26.1 (10th pctile) to R+2.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +14.1
80% CI: R +26.1 → R +2.1 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+19.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RCathy McMorris Rodgers0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DNatasha Hill0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-28
Cathy McMorris RodgersH4WA05077 ↗
Receipts
$6.4M
Disburse
$6.4M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Natasha HillH2WA05105 ↗
Receipts
$377.5K
Disburse
$377.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$5.9K
Lawyers / law firms$2.9K
Govt employees$2.5K
Top contributors
SILVER SAFARI$5.4K
WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY$3.9K
K ROWE INVESTMENTS, LLC$2.9K
THE KAUFMAN LAW GROUP$2.9K
STONEVIEW$2.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$252.7K
D side
$2.1K · 1%
R side
$250.7K · 99%
Top spender
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF…
For / against split
For Hill $624.85
Against Rodgers $1.4K
For Rodgers $250.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF RADIOLOGY ASSOCIATION PACR$179.7K71%for Cathy McMorris Rodgers
CITIZENS FOR RESPONSIBLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS INC.R$36.0K14%for Cathy McMorris Rodgers
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.R$35.0K14%for Cathy McMorris Rodgers
QUESTION PACD$1.4K1%against Cathy McMorris Rodgers
FUSE WASHINGTOND$624.850%for Natasha Hill

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Feb 9
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks