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Races · house · 2022 · Washington
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Brent Hennrich vs Jaime Herrera Beutler

← Washington houseWashington house →
Likely RR +8.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
8% Hennrich (D)
92% Beutler (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +8.6 · 80% CI R+20.6 → D+3.4
Actual result D+0.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 92% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+8.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+20.6 (10th pctile) to D+3.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 92% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +8.6
80% CI: R +20.6 → D +3.4 · win prob 8%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+0.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DBrent Hennrich0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJaime Herrera Beutler0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-21
Jaime Herrera BeutlerH0WA03187 ↗
Receipts
$3.8M
Disburse
$3.9M
Cash on hand
$14.8K
Debts
$29.5K
Top industries
Securities & investment$20.3K
Health professionals$11.9K
Casinos / gambling$6.4K
Top contributors
NA$32.1K
BLACKSTONE$20.3K
DAVITA$16.4K
VESTA HOSPITALITY$11.9K
STEPHENS INC$11.6K
Brent HennrichOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$99.3K
Disburse
$98.7K
Cash on hand
$598.67
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$1.4K
Top contributors
CITY OF NORFOLK$1.4K
ACCELA$1.0K
PSC$920.47
LASALLE RESERVE$500
SOUND BUILDING$500

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.3M
D side
$254.0K · 11%
R side
$2.0M · 89%
Top spender
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.
For / against split
For Perez $231.4K
Against Beutler $22.5K
Against Perez $8.0K
For Beutler $2.0M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.R$1.4M61%for Jaime Herrera Beutler
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.R$360.0K16%for Jaime Herrera Beutler
VALUE IN ELECTING WOMEN POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$155.0K7%for Jaime Herrera Beutler
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$62.8K3%for Jaime Herrera Beutler
DRAIN THE DC SWAMP PACD$20.0K1%against Jaime Herrera Beutler

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R2
Likely R3
Safe R1
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Aug 9
DDHQ
Likely R
Sep 19
The Economist
Likely R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Lean R
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Feb 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks