Races · house · 2022 · WA
house · open seat

Public Policy Polling vs The Trafalgar Group

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Likely D — · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D

likely-d

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-18
Total IE spending
$3K
For candidates
$3K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 10/18/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Marilyn Strickland (D)
$3K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$458K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.9M
Total spent
$1.5M
Debts
$50K
Source: FEC
Keith Swank (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$1K
Total raised (cycle)
$186K
Total spent
$187K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Likely D via pvi