Races · house · 2022 · Vermont

house · open seat

Becca Balint vs Liam Madden

← Virginia house Washington house →

Safe DD +30.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Balint (D)
1% Madden (R)
Win probability
Becca Balint99% (D)
Liam Madden1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +30.9
80% CID+18.9 → D+42.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +30.9 · 80% CI D+18.9 → D+42.9
Actual result D+33.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+30.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+18.9 (10th pctile) to D+42.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +30.9

80% CI: D +18.9 → D +42.9 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+33.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet

DBecca Balint0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RLiam Madden0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LEricka Redic0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

IMatt Druzba0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-29

Becca BalintH2VT01076 ↗

Receipts

$1.9M

Disburse

$1.9M

Cash on hand

$31.6K

Debts

$11.3K

Top industries

Govt employees$21.3K

Top contributors

STATE OF VERMONT$16.0K

INVARIANT$7.7K

NCCI HOLDINGS INC.$5.8K

DEMOS$5.8K

FTX$5.8K

Ericka RedicH2VT01084 ↗

Receipts

$29.8K

Disburse

$29.5K

Cash on hand

$269.36

Debts

Top industries

Oil & gas$100

Lawyers / law firms$100

Education$50

Top contributors

HOME INSTEAD$2.0K

DUPONT AEROSPACE$1.0K

ALSTAM LLC$500

CENTRAL VERMONT CHIROPRACTIC$375

MOREAU EMERGENCY SQUAD$125

Liam MaddenOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$47.7K

Disburse

$42.1K

Cash on hand

$5.5K

Debts

Top industries

Real estate$5.8K

Education$3.9K

Govt employees$250

Top contributors

BERKLEY VALLER REAL ESTATE$5.8K

PUTNEY SCHOOL$2.9K

ASKED$2.5K

SLEF EMPLOYED$1.7K

UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS$700

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.2M

D side

$3.2M · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

LGBTQ VICTORY FUND …

For / against split

For Balint $3.2M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
LGBTQ VICTORY FUND FEDERAL PAC	D	$2.0M	61%	for Becca Balint
WFP NATIONAL PAC	D	$572.2K	18%	for Becca Balint
CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS PAC	D	$390.0K	12%	for Becca Balint
EQUALITY PAC	D	$298.6K	9%	for Becca Balint
INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF FIREFIGHTERS INTERESTED IN REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION PAC	D	$1.3K	0%	for Becca Balint
VERMONT RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE INC. POLITICAL COMMITTEE	L	$10	0%	for Ericka Redic

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-29

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks