Races · house · 2022 · Virginia

house · open seat

Abigail Spanberger vs Yesli Vega

← Virginia house Virginia house →

Likely DD +8.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
92% Spanberger (D)
8% Vega (R)
Win probability
Abigail Spanberger92% (D)
Yesli Vega8% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +8.5
80% CIR+3.5 → D+20.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +8.5 · 80% CI R+3.5 → D+20.5
Actual result Abigail Davis Spanberger +4.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 92% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.5 (10th pctile) to D+20.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +8.5

80% CI: R +3.5 → D +20.5 · win prob 92%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Abigail Davis Spanberger +4.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DAbigail Spanberger0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RYesli Vega0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-15

Yesli VegaH2VA07261 ↗

Receipts

$3.7M

Disburse

$3.6M

Cash on hand

$87.4K

Debts

$389.2K

Top industries

Education$16.0K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$111.6K

SUMMIT RECYCLING$16.0K

HCSS$15.5K

JP CONSTRUCTION$14.6K

WOODFOREST NATIONAL BANK$13.8K

Abigail SpanbergerH8VA07094 ↗

Receipts

$9.1M

Disburse

$9.4M

Cash on hand

$280.4K

Debts

Top industries

Education$25.6K

Securities & investment$19.1K

Real estate$12.2K

Govt employees$12.0K

Internet$11.8K

Top contributors

BLACKSTONE$19.1K

THE MILLER FIRM$17.6K

UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA$13.2K

VCU HEALTH$12.8K

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIVERSITY$12.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$29.2M

D side

$17.9M · 61%

R side

$11.3M · 39%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Spanberger $1.8M

Against Vega $16.1M

Against Spanberger $9.7M

For Vega $1.6M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$15.3M	52%	against Yesli Vega
NRCC	R	$7.3M	25%	against Abigail Spanberger
CASA IN ACTION PAC	D	$1.1M	4%	for Abigail Spanberger
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$1.0M	3%	for Yesli Vega
MOMS FOR SAFE STREETS	R	$707.3K	2%	against Abigail Spanberger
SHIELD PAC	D	$600.0K	2%	for Abigail Spanberger
DEFEND US PAC	R	$585.5K	2%	against Abigail Spanberger
UNITED WE CAN	D	$397.5K	1%	against Yesli Vega
CATHOLICVOTE.ORG CANDIDATE FUND	R	$225.6K	1%	for Yesli Vega

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D4

Tilt D1

Tossup1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Oct 24

DDHQ

Lean D

Nov 5

The Economist

Lean D

Oct 31

538

Lean D

Oct 24

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Feb 7

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-15

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks