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Races · house · 2022 · Virginia
house · open seat

Donald McEachin vs Leon Benjamin

← Virginia houseVirginia house →
Safe DD +33.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% McEachin (D)
1% Benjamin (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +33.0 · 80% CI D+21.0 → D+45.0
Actual result D+30.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+33.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+21.0 (10th pctile) to D+45.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +33.0
80% CI: D +21.0 → D +45.0 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+30.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DDonald McEachin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLeon Benjamin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28
Leon BenjaminH0VA04064 ↗
Receipts
$382.0K
Disburse
$367.6K
Cash on hand
$36.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$12.8K
Health professionals$8.6K
Top contributors
TAP$8.7K
WILKIE REAL ESTATE BROKERAGE$7.0K
T COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES, LLC$5.8K
BANYAN MEDICAL$5.7K
INDUSTRIAL ADVISORS$5.0K
Donald McEachinH6VA04061 ↗
Receipts
$936.5K
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$104.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$3.9K
Top contributors
ALTRIA CLIENT SERVICES$10.3K
DOMINION ENERGY$9.8K
DOMINION ENERGY INC.$7.5K
ALTRIA GROUP$6.8K
BREAKTHROUGH ENERGY$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$111.7K
D side
$58.59 · 0%
R side
$111.7K · 100%
Top spender
ELBERT GUILLORY'S A…
For / against split
For McEachin $49.92
Against Benjamin $8.67
Against McEachin $2.3K
For Benjamin $109.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICAR$52.9K47%for Leon Benjamin
NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.R$51.5K46%for Leon Benjamin
EMPOWERING VIRGINIA PARENTSR$5.0K4%for Leon Benjamin
PATRIOT LEADERSHIP TRUSTR$2.3K2%against Donald McEachin
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUNDD$31.250%for Donald McEachin
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$17.340%against Leon Benjamin
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Donald McEachin

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Dec 27
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Feb 7
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks