Races · house · 2022 · Virginia

house · open seat

Elaine Luria vs Jen Kiggans

← Virginia house Virginia house →

Lean DD +2.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
68% Luria (D)
32% Kiggans (R)
Win probability
Elaine Luria68% (D)
Jen Kiggans32% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +2.7
80% CIR+9.3 → D+14.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +2.7 · 80% CI R+9.3 → D+14.7
Actual result R+28.6 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 68% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.3 (10th pctile) to D+14.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 68% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +2.7

80% CI: R +9.3 → D +14.7 · win prob 68%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+28.6
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DElaine Luria0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJen Kiggans0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2023-09-03

Jen KiggansH2VA02064 ↗

Receipts

$3.5M

Disburse

$3.5M

Cash on hand

$25.5K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$18.9K

ATLANTIC BAY MORTGAGE$14.5K

PRIORITY AUTOMOTIVE$13.3K

FRANKLIN JOHNSTON GROUP$13.3K

JES FOUNDATION$12.5K

Elaine LuriaH8VA02111 ↗

Receipts

$10.8M

Disburse

$10.7M

Cash on hand

$281.9K

Debts

Top industries

Education$14.0K

Lawyers / law firms$11.6K

Internet$11.1K

Computers / electronics$10.8K

Top contributors

NOT EMOLOYED$118.3K

OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY$14.0K

LOEWY LAW FIRM$11.6K

LAUDER PARTNERS, LLC$11.6K

OSLER INSTITUTE$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$15.6M

D side

$8.1M · 52%

R side

$7.5M · 48%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Luria $1.2M

Against Kiggans $6.9M

Against Luria $6.1M

For Kiggans $1.4M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$6.9M	44%	against Jen Kiggans
NRCC	R	$5.0M	32%	against Elaine Luria
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$540.4K	3%	for Jen Kiggans
DEFEND US PAC	R	$533.3K	3%	against Elaine Luria
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$469.8K	3%	against Elaine Luria
CASA IN ACTION PAC	D	$453.0K	3%	for Elaine Luria
SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	R	$360.0K	2%	for Jen Kiggans
SHIELD PAC	D	$300.0K	2%	for Elaine Luria
EMPOWERING VIRGINIA PARENTS	R	$214.7K	1%	for Jen Kiggans
CHAMPION AMERICAN VALUES	R	$200.0K	1%	for Jen Kiggans

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup4

Tilt R1

Lean R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Dec 27

DDHQ

Tossup

Oct 20

The Economist

Tossup

Sep 27

538

Tossup

Aug 4

Inside Elections

Tilt R

Nov 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2023-09-03

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks