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Races · house · 2022 · Virginia
house · open seat

Jennifer Wexton vs Hung Cao

← Virginia houseVirginia house →
Likely DD +14.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Wexton (D)
1% Cao (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +14.1 · 80% CI D+2.1 → D+26.1
Actual result D+6.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+14.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+2.1 (10th pctile) to D+26.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +14.1
80% CI: D +2.1 → D +26.1 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+6.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJennifer Wexton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RHung Cao0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08
Jennifer WextonH8VA10106 ↗
Receipts
$3.9M
Disburse
$5.8M
Cash on hand
$255.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$25.3K
Computers / electronics$11.9K
Top contributors
JONES DAY$14.1K
AMAZON$11.9K
SULLIVAN & CROMWELL LLP$11.2K
UNANET$9.7K
PRAGMATICS INC$8.7K
Hung CaoH2VA10240 ↗
Receipts
$3.3M
Disburse
$3.2M
Cash on hand
$92.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$25.1K
Top contributors
FIRST CHOICE PHYSICAL THERAPY$18.2K
CONGERO TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC.$14.5K
USPS$13.5K
PRAGMATICS$12.1K
LEE AND MAIN$12.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$242.0K
D side
$81.1K · 34%
R side
$160.9K · 66%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Wexton $81.1K
Against Wexton $104.9K
For Cao $56.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$57.0K24%against Jennifer Wexton
AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.R$56.0K23%for Hung Cao
UNITED WE CAND$40.0K17%for Jennifer Wexton
FIGHT FOR SCHOOLS AND FAMILIESR$27.2K11%against Jennifer Wexton
ASIAN AMERICANS FOR CHANGE FUNDD$16.9K7%for Jennifer Wexton
EMPOWERING VIRGINIA PARENTSR$15.5K6%against Jennifer Wexton

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D6
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Oct 24
DDHQ
Likely D
Oct 16
The Economist
Likely D
Oct 3
538
Likely D
Oct 19
Inside Elections
Likely D
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 21

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks