Races · house · 2022 · Utah
house · open seat
Darlene McDonald vs Burgess Owens
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.2 (10th pctile) to R+16.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.2
80% CI: R +40.2 → R +16.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+28.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRBurgess Owens0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDarlene McDonald0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-05Burgess OwensH0UT04076 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$205.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$36.5K
4LIFE$17.4K
CHECK CITY$10.0K
SALT DEVELOPMENT$9.4K
WON-DOOR CORP.$8.7K
Darlene McDonald
Receipts
$187.0K
Disburse
$162.4K
Cash on hand
$24.6K
Debts
$90.0K
Top industries
Pharma / health products$2.9K
Pharma / health products · $2.9K
- Recursion Pharmaceuticals · $2.9K
Individuals $2.9K · PACs $0
Education$600
Education · $600
- University Federal Credit Union · $600
Individuals $600 · PACs $0
Health professionals$600
Health professionals · $600
- Granger Medical · $600
Individuals $600 · PACs $0
Top contributors
RECURSION PHARMACEUTICALS$2.9K
SENTRY FINANCIAL$2.5K
PORCH SOFTWARE$1.7K
EXP$1.5K
STRIVE HEALTH, LLC$1.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$362.9K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$362.9K · 100%
Top spender
ELBERT GUILLORY'S A…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA super pac · boosts R
| R | $360.3K | 99% | for Burgess Owens |
| THE GUARDIAN FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $2.3K | 1% | for Burgess Owens |
| WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $302.48 | 0% | for Burgess Owens |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 15
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Dec 22
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 16
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks