Races · house · 2022 · Utah

house · open seat

Nick Mitchell vs Chris Stewart

← Utah house Utah house →

Safe RR +22.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Mitchell (D)
99% Stewart (R)
Win probability
Nick Mitchell1% (D)
Chris Stewart99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +22.6
80% CIR+34.6 → R+10.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +22.6 · 80% CI R+34.6 → R+10.6
Actual result R+25.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.6 (10th pctile) to R+10.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +22.6

80% CI: R +34.6 → R +10.6 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+25.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RChris Stewart0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DNick Mitchell0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Chris StewartOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$1.1M

Disburse

$1.1M

Cash on hand

$184.9K

Debts

Top industries

Pharma / health products$14.5K

Securities & investment$11.6K

Electric utilities$8.8K

Top contributors

MEDQUEST PHARMACY$14.5K

WESTERN SLOPES SECURITY SERVICES$14.0K

ATS COMMUNICATIONS, INC.$11.6K

BLACKSTONE$11.6K

DORSEY & WHITNEY$10.2K

Nick MitchellOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$42.8K

Disburse

$25.3K

Cash on hand

$17.5K

Debts

$10.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

ALSCO INC.$500

ZION FOREVER PROJECT$250

PDC LLC$100

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Nov 15

DDHQ

Safe R

Jul 19

538

Safe R

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe R

Dec 22

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 16

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks