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Races · house · 2022 · Texas
house · open seat

Lizzie Fletcher vs Johnny Teague

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe DD +27.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Fletcher (D)
1% Teague (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +27.4 · 80% CI D+15.4 → D+39.4
Actual result D+27.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+15.4 (10th pctile) to D+39.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.4
80% CI: D +15.4 → D +39.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+27.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DLizzie Fletcher0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJohnny Teague0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-31
Lizzie FletcherH8TX07140 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$2.4M
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$25.7K
Health professionals$23.2K
Education$12.3K
Top contributors
PLAINS ALL AMERICAN PIPELINE$16.6K
BLANK ROME LLP$13.1K
AHMAD ZAVITSANOS ANAIPAKOS ALAVI & MEN$12.9K
AZA LAW$12.6K
RICE UNIVERSITY$12.3K
Johnny TeagueH0TX09176 ↗
Receipts
$191.7K
Disburse
$200.2K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$12.3K
Top industries
Real estate$2.8K
Oil & gas$2.8K
Crop production$1.0K
Top contributors
POPE REAL ESTATE$2.8K
MIDDLETON OIL COMPANY$2.8K
POWER MONITORS$2.8K
SAVANAH PLANTATION HOMES$1.5K
WINGCAP$1.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$537.76
D side
$235.28 · 44%
R side
$302.48 · 56%
Top spender
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC
For / against split
For Fletcher $226.61
Against Teague $8.67
Against Fletcher $302.48
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$302.4856%against Lizzie Fletcher
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)D$110.4221%for Lizzie Fletcher
HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN EQUALITY VOTESD$85.5216%for Lizzie Fletcher
HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN PACD$224%for Lizzie Fletcher
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$17.343%for Lizzie Fletcher

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Oct 24
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
Nov 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 10

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks